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- Trumpaphobia: Conflict Humor creativeconflictwisdom.wordpress.com/2016/07/25/tru… https://t.co/F3ZiWUz96c 1 month ago
- Brexit Negotiation 101 aka Basics creativeconflictwisdom.wordpress.com/2016/07/10/bre… 1 month ago
- Tao Te Ching: Lao Tse (circa 600-531 BCE): Top Ten Conflict Tips creativeconflictwisdom.wordpress.com/2016/07/04/tao… https://t.co/beL2kNfuEb 1 month ago
- Top Ten Conflict Tips for Hillary Clinton Debating Donald Trump creativeconflictwisdom.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/top… https://t.co/nTPdI3mXvs 2 months ago
- Brexit Scenario Based Futuring creativeconflictwisdom.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/bre… 2 months ago
August 2016 M T W T F S S « Jul 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Monthly summary of postings
Categories of conflict
- Thinkers on Conflict: Popper versus Kuhn
- Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) on the Causes of Conflict
- Conflict Resolution Strategy: The Top Ten Differences between Positional and Interest Based Bargaining
- Conflict Resolution: Top Twelve Tips: The Buddhist Approach
- Duck God or Rabbit God? Good Cause for War?
- The Strongest Country in the World?
- 'Hail Freedonia' from the Marx Brothers' Duck Soup: Our 500th Posting!
- Big History: The History of the Universe in Under 18 minutes....David Christian at TED
- Confirmation Bias and Climate Change
- To Give Up on Words: Silence in Apache Culture
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Brexit Negotiation 101:
UK: We want access to EU markets and the City able to do business in the EU
EU: Fine, you can have that if you agree to free labour movement, and cough up some money to EU funding aka the Norway model.
UK: If we do that we might as well remain in the EU.
EU and the British people apart from 17.4 million dolts: Exactly.
In these scoundrel times with “war lords” wreaking havoc, I thought it time for one of Top Ten Conflict Tips, this time from the founder of Taoism the sage Lao Tse who starts his famous book the Tao Te Ching with the warning: “The Tao that can be told is not the true Tao.”
- Knowing others is intelligence;
knowing yourself is true wisdom.
Mastering others is strength;
mastering yourself is true power.
- Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know.
- Do you have the patience to wait until your mud settles and the water is clear?”
- A leader is best
When people barely know he exists
Of a good leader, who talks little,
When his work is done, his aim fulfilled,
They will say, “We did this ourselves.”
- The wise man is one who, knows, what he does not know.
- Give evil nothing to oppose
and it will disappear by itself
- All streams flow to the sea because it is lower than they are. humility gives it its , power. if you want to govern the people, you must place yourself below them. if you want to lead the people, you must learn how to follow them.
- If you realize that all things change, there is nothing you will try to hold on to.
- Countless words
than the silent balance
between yin and yang
- When there is no desire,
all things are at peace
With a lot of attention on the battle at the core of the US Presidential Election focused on one to one debates between the two candidates, I thought it would be fun to provide, as a professional negotiator used to trench warfare, one of our Top Ten Conflict Tips for Hillary Clinton:
- “Strategy rarely survives a punch in the mouth” (Mike Tyson): so take boxing lessons, at least metaphorically.
- Answer vicious attacks with a question aka a blocking move and then hit back hard
- Don’t try to policy wonk you way out of his attacks or in setting your own perspective; Sound bite counter sound bite.
- Use silence and eye balling as a weapon as you did in the Benghazi hearings and expose his bully side over and over again.
- Focus, focus, focus on the slice of the audience you can hope to shift, triangulating on your feet
- Work with the best trial attorneys on how to win over the jury
- Push his buttons early and often and keep him off balance, and know he will be trying to do the same to you: focus on your core and punch from it, demolishing him with humor.
- After Action Review your performance against Bernie and then adjust the lessons for the Brute and do the same for Trump’s performance against GOP rivals: what worked, what didn’t work, what would you do differently with Trump?
- Learn from each debate that takes place, without blame, but know Trump morphs/metastizes fast so figure out what game move he thinks you will make next time and use disinformation.
- Stick to your core and especially who you were before all the GOP crap was thrown at you for 25 years.
In honor of an optimistic and dear friend who helpfully counters my natural Eeyorisitic pessimissm, here is the scenario- based futuring of Peter Schwartz applied to Brexit. Schwartz thinks the future is specifically unknowable, but telling stories about possible alternative varied scenarios that might play out helps decision making, preparation and thinking about consequences. He suggests four scenarios covering the water front is ideal with memorable names and that we don’t try to assign probabilities, but keep an open mind and avoid having one “official future” (Ford used to have a forecast price of gas “for planning purposes to the nearest cent 10 years ahead which was complete bs and it varied daily)
1) BORISIA a free market paradise where everyone works as a rip off margins financial planner to everyone else, no one works in manufacturing or exportable services, the City has little international significance and the regions that produce no value add (aka Brexit supporting takers) live off the slowly sinking into the sunset rest (aka makers) who put up with it. When this fails scenario turns sour quite fast, another follow on scenario unfolds called SCAPEGOATIA, raising the blame the EU for all our non value add game to a whole new level
2) CAMERONIA: a tough decade ahead with lots of unnecessary economic suffering, but UK survives from crisis to crisis without extremes, but is a drearier place longer term with lots of young people rightly pissed off with those who voted Brexit and a discriminatory old age pension depending on Brexit vote.
3) ARGENTINA: having got into the habit of approving Kamikaze economic policies, the UK follows the example of Argentina over the last 100 years and repeats this sort of thing over and over again and slowly sinks into being a poor country. Even more likely to spin off Scapegoatia than #1
4) SINGAPORE: the UK reinvents itself around hi tech manufacturing, sane City finance sector, and exportable services and establishes regional Singapores in the North of England, Midlands and South West, and Scotland if she is still in the UK. A variant of this is that the London region follows the Singapore example and dumps the rest of the UK so the latter can pursue #1 underhindered, though we would want a wall on the outside edge of the M25 for when Scapegoatia gets going. Independence for London: you first heard it here. 🙂 Oh and I think to get the best on this we should hand sovereignty to Singapore for say 20 years to ensure success.
And violating Schwartz’s approach, I think #1 and #4 are pigs will fly land; Scapegoatia highly likely, Cameronia almost certain but considerable risk of Argentina.
I was thinking that one scale, one way to think about different people distributed along it, is what I might term the Migrant to Amigrant Scale.
On this scale, Migrants would be those who tend to respond to adverse situations they face by:
1) Changing themselves,
2) Trying to change the situation or
3) Migrating to somewhere less adverse.
Amigrants tend to respond to adverse situations by:
1) Not changing themselves,
2) Not trying to change their situation but preferring to complain about their situation or even better toblame others for it and
3) Not moving to less adverse places; and greatly resenting those who do.
And it is a sliding scale between Very Migrant to Very Amigrant, rather than a grouping of humanity into two separate groups, which not be a Migrant thing to do. 🙂
For decades the GOP has been scapegoating rather than systemically trying to understand economics and the forces that cause our problems like the 2008 Crash. Trump has taken this to a whole new depth, a new low. And unfortunately some Bernie supporters have embraced hate (of Hillary and of Wall Street) rather than undertaking economic analysis. But then heck even Karl Marx depended materially on his factory owner capitalist friend Friedrich Engels (crooked Karl?) and thought capitalists were heroes as well as their own undertakers for hastening historical progress. So I thought I would post a diagram that shows some systemic connections: enjoy: hope it helps