Philip Tetlock’s Top Ten Conflict Tips

I thought it would be fun to take Philip Tetlock’s lessons on accurate expert forecasting from his book ‘Expert Political Judgement’ that I have previously posted about and create another one of our Top Ten Conflict Tips, loosely around the Getting Real stage of our conflict model, as realism is an essential step in any conflict:

  1. Open minded: tolerant of on-going complexity and ambiguity, avoiding premature closure to one perspective
  2. More cautious in making probability judgments and avoiding over-certainty
  3. Avoid extreme beliefs and theories
  4. Integrative complexity: understanding just how complex the situation is without false simplification
  5. Openness to hypotheticals that challenge beliefs: what if your beliefs are not true and what evidence would it take to change your mind?
  6. Avoiding hindsight bias: recording in writing any perspectives you have on the situation in detail and checking afterwards if they were accurate
  7. Better belief up-dating with few defenses of belief system: be a good Bayesian observer with new data leading to an appropriately revised view of the situation
  8. Use multiple mental models, not just one
  9. Learn from mistakes by admitting them
  10. And above all in summary be a Fox who knows many things rather than a Hedgehog that just knows one thing as per Isaiah Berlin

Philip Tetlock:

About creativeconflictwisdom

I spent 32 years in a Fortune Five company working on conflict: organizational, labor relations and senior management. I have consulted in a dozen different business sectors and the US Military. I work with a local environmental non profit. I have written a book on the neuroscience of conflict, and its implications for conflict handling called Creative Conflict Wisdom (forthcoming).
This entry was posted in Conflict Processes, Neuro-science of conflict, PERSONAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION: CREATIVE STRATEGIES, The Conflict Model, Top Ten Conflict Tips from Great Thinkers, Uncategorized, Ways to handle conflict and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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