In honor of an optimistic and dear friend who helpfully counters my natural Eeyorisitic pessimissm, here is the scenario- based futuring of Peter Schwartz applied to Brexit. Schwartz thinks the future is specifically unknowable, but telling stories about possible alternative varied scenarios that might play out helps decision making, preparation and thinking about consequences. He suggests four scenarios covering the water front is ideal with memorable names and that we don’t try to assign probabilities, but keep an open mind and avoid having one “official future” (Ford used to have a forecast price of gas “for planning purposes to the nearest cent 10 years ahead which was complete bs and it varied daily)
1) BORISIA a free market paradise where everyone works as a rip off margins financial planner to everyone else, no one works in manufacturing or exportable services, the City has little international significance and the regions that produce no value add (aka Brexit supporting takers) live off the slowly sinking into the sunset rest (aka makers) who put up with it. When this fails scenario turns sour quite fast, another follow on scenario unfolds called SCAPEGOATIA, raising the blame the EU for all our non value add game to a whole new level
2) CAMERONIA: a tough decade ahead with lots of unnecessary economic suffering, but UK survives from crisis to crisis without extremes, but is a drearier place longer term with lots of young people rightly pissed off with those who voted Brexit and a discriminatory old age pension depending on Brexit vote.
3) ARGENTINA: having got into the habit of approving Kamikaze economic policies, the UK follows the example of Argentina over the last 100 years and repeats this sort of thing over and over again and slowly sinks into being a poor country. Even more likely to spin off Scapegoatia than #1
4) SINGAPORE: the UK reinvents itself around hi tech manufacturing, sane City finance sector, and exportable services and establishes regional Singapores in the North of England, Midlands and South West, and Scotland if she is still in the UK. A variant of this is that the London region follows the Singapore example and dumps the rest of the UK so the latter can pursue #1 underhindered, though we would want a wall on the outside edge of the M25 for when Scapegoatia gets going. Independence for London: you first heard it here. 🙂 Oh and I think to get the best on this we should hand sovereignty to Singapore for say 20 years to ensure success.
And violating Schwartz’s approach, I think #1 and #4 are pigs will fly land; Scapegoatia highly likely, Cameronia almost certain but considerable risk of Argentina.