Alternative Scenarios for a Trump Presidency after Peter Schwartz

I like the work of Peter Schwartz on scenario based futuring: telling 3 or 4 alternative stories about the future to avoid having one official future optimistic or pessimistic. He suggests we have for instance: one future that is current trends continued, one that is far worse, one far better and one completely different.

So to help envision Trump’s Presidency here are four scenarios/stories. They are intended to be all held in mind not picked or given probabilities. They are about tolerance of ambiguity to allow thinking. By all means add a scenario or suggest one is totally not going to happen, but spare me telling me you have a crystal ball: the future is pretty indeterminate and this is more about mentally opening to it, so as to head off or push trends. Schwartz suggests we use memorable titles for each scenario. And of course we may get combo sandwiches:

1) White Supremacy Kamikaze: Trump goes with his Breitbart supporters and really tries to reverse the demographic clock, mass deports, and uses the apparatus of state to screw his enemies and permanently weaken the Democrats. He makes America isolationist and climate change boosting and women/minorities oppressing. Fascism by any other name would taste as sour.
2) Plutocratic Optimization. Pence would ensure/continue Republican tax cuts for the rich and most of the Bush 2 policies and stay clear of long term demographic suicide and trade wars but screw Obamacare and continue the rigging of the political system to prevent the demographic trends in future elections, so a sort of White Supremacy lite
3) Trump Towers: Trump become a Keynesian like Hitler and his autobahns and goes for fiscal stimulus by the $ trillions in infrastructure and defense spending. Avoids anything especially White Supremacy, relying instead on bread and circuses reality TV smoke and mirrors to make the base Base think their identity is being protected and to avoid stoking opposition and the waking up of the abstainers from their sleep. And he doesn’t do much on climate change either way.
4) Trump Chaos. The conflicting forces in the GOP and Trump’s own personality cause a deep swampy mess and his Presidency teeters on and is easy to counter in the mid-terms.
Or “now for something completely different”

Personally for the Democrats #3 is the most threatening, especially if they continue not to get their strategic shit together and silo away and leader ego away and continue to be bureaucratically un nimble as my local Dems seem to be aka party in brewery incapable of organizing.

What do you think?

About creativeconflictwisdom

I spent 32 years in a Fortune Five company working on conflict: organizational, labor relations and senior management. I have consulted in a dozen different business sectors and the US Military. I work with a local environmental non profit. I have written a book on the neuroscience of conflict, and its implications for conflict handling called Creative Conflict Wisdom (forthcoming).
This entry was posted in Conflict Processes, US Political Conflict, Ways to handle conflict and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Alternative Scenarios for a Trump Presidency after Peter Schwartz

  1. louploup2 says:

    Good way to think through the consequences of the election. I don’t think the scenarios are necessarily discrete; it’s easy to imagine some combination or overlapping, like a Chaotic Tower. I think the Kamikaze path could devolve into a really bloody mess (“Civil War”) in some places. Seems like the military might not like it and would step in (“Post Orange Junta”?).

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