Tag Archives: Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theory in Economics and Economic Forecasting

In response to a recent post in Real World Economics, I set out my views on the application of Bayes Theorem to economics and economics forecasting. https://rwer.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/the-limits-of-probabilistic-reasoning-2/ It’s not really related to how I use Bayes Theorem, but then maybe … Continue reading

Posted in Academic Conflict, Brexit, Conflict Humor, Conflict Processes, Conflict Statistics, Economic Conflict, Philosophy of Conflict, US Political Conflict | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Climate Change, Fundamentalism and Bayes’ Thereom

I loved reading Nate Silver (he of the accurate 2012 election forecasts) new book ‘The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t.’ I especially liked his chapter on climate change: A Climate of Healthy Skepticism. … Continue reading

Posted in Conflict Book Reviews, Conflict Processes, Environmental Conflict, Uncategorized, Ways to handle conflict | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments