Tag Archives: Brexit

In Times of Rapid Change Do Conservatives Necessarily Go Nuts and Cease to be Conservatives?

I simply cannot understand how the conservatives I grew up with, who were pragmatic, un-dogmatic and open to reasoned argument, have been replaced by the Conservative barking mad Brexiters, and at one remove in the US, the Trump supporters and … Continue reading

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Bayes Theory in Economics and Economic Forecasting

In response to a recent post in Real World Economics, I set out my views on the application of Bayes Theorem to economics and economics forecasting. https://rwer.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/the-limits-of-probabilistic-reasoning-2/ It’s not really related to how I use Bayes Theorem, but then maybe … Continue reading

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Beware The Tory Cult that is Steering Brexit: Simon Kuper

Someone else shares my view that the UK Conservative Party is in the grip of Cargo Cult with catastrophic consequences: “The difficulty of Brexiting is part of the appeal: only a great tribe can renew itself through sacrifice”  In South … Continue reading

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Theresa May and the Brexit Corner She Created

Theresa May is now asking the EU not to back her into a corner. This is wise of her to say but also laughable: as if she did not create the very corner she doesn’t want to be backed into by … Continue reading

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Brexit: Updated Scenario Probabilities

Ah well, time for a Brexit scenario update based on Bayesian re-assessment of which way the wind blows currently, and in ascending order of probability 1) Visible Hand 15% probable. This is a friend’s predicted down to the wire outcome, … Continue reading

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Across the Great Divide

What the elections in the US and UK and elsewhere are showing is a deep divide in modern advanced economies between 1) those with university education, including those areas where people cluster around those with university education and serve them … Continue reading

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Brexit Means Brexit Means Endless Austerity

What seems missing from the analysis of austerity in relation to the recent UK General Election is that Brexit means endless austerity as far as the eye can see, as it likely takes 400 billion pounds a year out of … Continue reading

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