Tag Archives: Brexit

The UK/EU Restoration Movement

UK now having left the EU, time for: The UK/EU Restoration Movement: 1) Keep connected, keep our spirits up, support each other 2) Try to get a good Labour Leader sympathetic to our cause 3) Join political parties to gently … Continue reading

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How Not to Negotiate Trade Deals Post Brexit

Lifted from the UK Guardian comments this morning. Says it all really. And I post this for conflict and negotiation interest rather than a specifically Brexit point though despite my old friend Bill Ury teaching the British Cabinet Interest Based … Continue reading

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In Times of Rapid Change Do Conservatives Necessarily Go Nuts and Cease to be Conservatives?

I simply cannot understand how the conservatives I grew up with, who were pragmatic, un-dogmatic and open to reasoned argument, have been replaced by the Conservative barking mad Brexiters, and at one remove in the US, the Trump supporters and … Continue reading

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Bayes Theory in Economics and Economic Forecasting

In response to a recent post in Real World Economics, I set out my views on the application of Bayes Theorem to economics and economics forecasting. https://rwer.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/the-limits-of-probabilistic-reasoning-2/ It’s not really related to how I use Bayes Theorem, but then maybe … Continue reading

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Beware The Tory Cult that is Steering Brexit: Simon Kuper

Someone else shares my view that the UK Conservative Party is in the grip of Cargo Cult with catastrophic consequences: “The difficulty of Brexiting is part of the appeal: only a great tribe can renew itself through sacrifice”  In South … Continue reading

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Theresa May and the Brexit Corner She Created

Theresa May is now asking the EU not to back her into a corner. This is wise of her to say but also laughable: as if she did not create the very corner she doesn’t want to be backed into by … Continue reading

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Brexit: Updated Scenario Probabilities

Ah well, time for a Brexit scenario update based on Bayesian re-assessment of which way the wind blows currently, and in ascending order of probability 1) Visible Hand 15% probable. This is a friend’s predicted down to the wire outcome, … Continue reading

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