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Category Archives: Conflict Processes
Brexit: Updated Scenario Probabilities
Ah well, time for a Brexit scenario update based on Bayesian re-assessment of which way the wind blows currently, and in ascending order of probability 1) Visible Hand 15% probable. This is a friend’s predicted down to the wire outcome, … Continue reading
Other Approaches to the US Gun Death Epidemic
It is interesting that all sides in the gun death issue seem to want to fight it as a matter of huge irreconcilable principle and get nowhere. And then when you suggest: oh let’s look at the UK with one … Continue reading
Really Good Graphic Summary of Cognitive Biases
The link is here if you want to read it more easily: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/cognitive-bias-infographic.html
Strategy by Any Other Name Would Sound as Unacceptable
Someone asked me for some strategic thoughts on the current US political situation: I don’t think the Dems/progressives can do strategy. Not seen any sign of it these recent decades. My strategic views are not very popular, don’t get many … Continue reading
Building on Jonathan Haidt’s The Righteous Mind
I was knocked out by the approach Jon Haidt developed in this book “The Righteous Mind: Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion”. Among other things it provided me with some really important and prescient insights into the … Continue reading
American Football and Economics Knowledge Thereof
I tend to upset people on the Left, especially the Alt Left these days. But this is what keeps me up nights. Conservatives have a delusion that capitalism as she is currently constructed is not close to collapse by say … Continue reading
Across the Great Divide
What the elections in the US and UK and elsewhere are showing is a deep divide in modern advanced economies between 1) those with university education, including those areas where people cluster around those with university education and serve them … Continue reading
The Paradox of Personal Experiment
There is this paradox at both the personal level and the political level. When there is a lot of pain is when we most need to try something new, to experiment even on a small scale with new approaches, new … Continue reading
Brexit Chest Thumping Versus Skilled Negotiation: Jonathan Powell
At last a piece of Brexit analysis by someone who has done many difficult negotiations in the past and who has learned from them: Stop the Brexit chest thumping: successful negotiators build trust. The UK must refrain from overplaying its … Continue reading